ouch! that's 2005.

Lazy bones all around. In medical terms, it’s called the “post-festive-holiday-syndrome” which mostly happens on people who need to come back to work between boxing day and new year’s eve, like me sitting here. Wish I could re-live 2005 again so that I could be a little bit smarter here and there with my stock-picking skills. Absolutely no advancement financially in 2005 and hopefully the portfolio would only end up flat compared with a year ago. Experience-wise, it’s a fruitful year. Time to review rights and wrongs in 2005!!! Hm…..Old-fashioned, but it helps.

Quitted too late on a long-time winner that had a substantial rally in 2003 and 2004. I knew the exit door was too small for everyone for these small caps but maybe, I had been sitting for too long on the wonderful ride up and I got all numbed at the end when you need to run for life. 25% down from the top and I got out. These are small caps, they bring you returns in folds but you’ve got to watch for the exit always. Major reason to have a flat return in 2005.

Fooled by small moves and blinded from the bigger ones. Irritated by the testing of major support for one and got out at the bottom of the range. It hurts even more when you find this one standing 22% above your exit point. Big trend was the Renmenbi revaluation and beneficial government policy directions for the company – kicked out by silly rumors on the street. Lesson – setting stop loss level is more of an art than science and don’t cry over spilled milk.

Made good use of other people’s advice. This is where e-banking can’t compare to doing trades physically at the bank. It was the bank manager I need to thank. The teller didn’t know how to do a trade in gold and her supervisor was called in to help. The trade was done finally and I got some gold in the portfolio. He apologized for the inconvenience as the teller had no experience in dealing with gold and had to keep me waiting. I asked him if there were many people doing trades in gold by then (this is the only bank in the city which still offers a trading account in gold!). Not many, I was told, in fact I doubt if I was the only gold account showing up at his branch for the past few years. Then, I was suggested, instead of getting no interest on gold investments, I might want to get into aussie dollars, euro or even these XYZ-linked-double-protection-credit-default-note with an enhanced interest rate. There you go, gold has never looked back since then. A big thank you to the bank supervisor - I added some more on the next day.

Reached out a few times on small caps and successfully cut loss at pre-determined level. This is the happiest thing ever and I’m really really glad that I was able to do that, even more than getting a handsome profit elsewhere. I AM ALIVE.

happy new year!

All you need is survival

the fairy tale has once again come close to reality. "what else is better than making a living doing daytrading with the stock market?", that's what i overheard the other day at lunch from 2 young ladies sharing my table. i don't have a clue on how they've found out this easiest way of getting rich in this world, but judging from their age and dress appearance, i'd bet it's their dad who's making the killing. and even more confusing is that one of them confessed to the other that she had barely any saving in her bank when she was asked why she didn't invest herself if money was that easy afterall. funny? not much until you know that the girl with zero saving was in her late 20s and the girl asking was obviously 14 or 15 only. where the heck did they get this impression of all these easy money from the stock market?

stock market in hk has finally retreated from its month-long rally of over 1500 points, yup, healthy correction as many would say. can a "healthy" correction look as bumpy as a 5-dollar trading range with hutchison during the day?! we are talking about a multi-billion-dollar-international-conglomerate here and this kind of volatility is probably something more than USUAL. result announcement is due next week for hutchy and you can expect the picture for 3G to get less frustrating (but still a drag on overall performance at the moment) especially when the management shares their plans to get some of their 3G operations listed in the uk or italy.

the calculation part shouldn't be difficult for the harvard-educated analysts at investment banks and i'm sure i can't do anything better than these guys in predicting the earning numbers. i'm clinging onto the belief that there's no easy money in the marketplace - trading volume in warrants is just making up new highs day after day. what's worrying me is the basic mentality of small investors - when would the little guys go into warrants so aggressively and why? a recent article/interview with a hk local small investor might tell us something, "this latest rally didn't benefit any of my holdings, as they are all 2nd or 3rd liners which didn't join the ride, i'm planning to chase-it-back from blue-chip's warrants hopefully." desperate but aggressive. this might be an individual case only but the general atmostphere surrounding the marketplace is so bullish and you gotta be wary of this --- much of the profit improvements of blue-chips this year came from revaluation of properties being counted as profits. it's all paper.

hutchy is a good company, doubtless. and mr. li's biz acumen is second to none among chinese globally, especially in trading assets. but it's not always the case that a good company = a good stock to own. with so many individual investors joining in the warrant market, hoping to make a big killing over the short run (as short as the next minute he/she's in), i won't take the risk of staying near the market top and sitting in a bumpy train isn't enjoyable afterall.

getting off bumpy trains when it's still going full speed has saved me from bloody losses time and again. check your seatbelt if you'd like to ride the upcoming roller-coaster trip and make sure you know where is the emergency exit.

信上帝的人有福了

著名投資人 Sir Templeton (Templeton Fund 創辦人) 曾經說過, “God only helps those who help others…..” 譚普頓作為一位基督徒, 說出這樣的道理自然不過, 但同時作為一位殿堂級的投資人, 他的每句說話也許都暗藏投資玄機。

近日正當港股氣勢如虹, 恒指屢創新高的同時, 某一大型上市公司 (市值要比恒指成份股裕元工業<0551.hk> 還要大) 遇到“強大阻力”, 其他大藍籌勢如破竹, 她卻受到數以千計投資者掛出沽盤要sell, 至今仍未能跟隨大市破位上衝, 掛出買盤的那邊廂, 人丁單薄, 不夠喊沽者之十分一….. 不錯, 人丁單薄, 但當中有我。

我選擇“鋤強扶弱”原因有三:

1. 買盤那邊人數弱, 但掛出的買單量絕不弱, 百多個買盤, 要買進25 mil股; 另一邊那一千個沽家也只是要沽出25 mil股, 喊買的是何人, 喊賣的又是何人?
2. 常說群眾是錯的, 股市內永遠是少數人贏多數人錢的地方, 要贏就要遠離群眾, 跟大伙兒對著幹。這倘大伙兒在喊沽。
3. 我信上帝, 我想伸出援手, 這麼多人想沽出, 懇求買家, 好, 我買。

Sir Templeton說, “God only helps those who help others. When everyone wants to sell, you help and buy from them; when everyone wants to buy, you help and sell to them.” 信者得救? 很快就要有答案了。

how real is it?

"REAL ESTATE GOLD RUSH"

that's the cover story of FORTUNE's may 30th issue.

the US real estate market - just picked this up from the mailbox and didn't even have time to flip through the pages but these four little words on the magazine's cover are catching all my attention already. what's so eye-catching? we've got six very nice pictures on its cover, showing smiling faces of young men and women, full of confidence with one of them seemingly yelling "i'm king of the world!" with his arms reaching high in the air!

can't keep thinking about this. the investment guru said, "when an investment turns up as THE best buy in the media, it's time to sell and go away." effectiveness of this theory carries a very high positive correlation with the media's own (or magazine/press) industry standing. on this aspect, fortune commands a respected position in the financial/business world, no objection. when it talks about stories on people getting rich from real-estate (my guess up till this point as i've not gone through the pages yet but you can probably tell from their smiley faces), i'll bet it's not far from a major market top.

the world just can't be that perfect.

Toys for the big boys

Very soon, pocket PCs will be capable of doing your laundry. Colleagues and friends around are all reaching for the latest mobile phone, or not actually a mobile phone but a technical device capable of sending emails, taking pictures, reaching friends online in the other side of the globe, downloading songs, handling spreadsheets, doing a small presentation and well, making phone calls. Lovely idea, in fact and it’s so nice to imagine having one of such in my jacket’s pocket, putting every little bit of information inside and you are just walking around with a PC in your pocket. Have been thinking of getting one for long but the next second, I’m thinking how many times I’ll be using it during a typical workday, not to mention weekends. With this span of computer screens in front of me right now and a fat one at home, it will be better to keep a little distance from anything coded by 1s and 0s, for a couple of hours.

These fancy machines are selling for 5000 dollars and you’ll have to line up for the batch arriving next month (of course, you pay up-front). Hm….. tricky, maybe, it’s another sign of getting outdated. My notebook only costs me 6700 dollars and it feels like a real-computer to me and it has a bigger screen!!!!! Yes, it can’t do my laundry, you may say and I don’t expect it anytime soon. The salesman didn’t tell me it’s waterproof.

財經演員真情對話

朋友送來兩張基金投資講座入場券, 說請來了香港某證券界人士主講, 剖析2005年各投資市場前景及相應策略. 投資乃世上最易學難精既一門學問, 無人可以教你咁做咁做就可以將一蚊變一百, 一百變一萬. 大部分成功既投資家, 後生個陣通常都經歷過"輸到眼光, 被迫斬倉"既日子, 然後痛定思痛, 吸收經驗, 痛改前非, 從頭黎過最後先可以從股海中上岸, 找到真正既財務自由, 做自己想做既野 (通常佢地都係選擇做番投資既野, 因為佢地真係鐘意呢樣野先至咁成功). 相反, 兩個鐘頭既投資講座就可以指點迷津幫你搵到今年既投資熱點? 打死都唔信, 仲免費添??? 得得呀? 免費午餐係真係有既, 不過絶大部分時間都唔輪到你同我食咁解 jer.

財經演員有問必答? 黃大仙咩?

發達容易, 搵食艱難?

好多人話, 97 之前香港地遍地黄金, 你肯要就得啦. 97 之後好似成個世界變左, 打工既隨時接大信封, 做生意既要同一千幾百個同行爭半日之長短, 實行你 sale 我又 sale, 唔好彩既樓市高峰期買落層以為係自己既安樂窩, 點知供左七年 (如果仲未被人炒魷) 先至叫做有 d 曙光變番正資產. 其實人一生做咁鬼多個決定, 裏面只要做o岩幾個重要決定就可以改寫一生. 諗下啦, 83年後開始供樓買樓, 期間乜都唔做, 一直到97年回歸前放哂 d 單位, 咁就一鋪攪掂. 相反, 諗住踏踏實實搵兩餐日日朝七晚十一 (好似老董依家咁) 做到死咁滯, 今日已是 555 人士 (50幾歲, 5萬幾人工, 方5學歷), 但一覺醒來發現自己個位比收萬二蚊人工果個大學畢業生搶走左, 你話幾悲? 方向幾時都重要過力水, 入錯線既, 比架 Porsche 你踩盡油都無用, 一樣去唔到目的地. 發達容易定搵食艱難呢?