這幾天觀察到以下現象:
1. morgan stanley, UBS, lehman brothers, merrill lynch, citigroup, barclays, credit suisse, goldman sachs --- 有買有沽, 睇到眼都花 --> question 1 --> 請問閣下係邊位?
2. 兩個 goldman 牌, 一個大摩牌, 一個 cantor --- 掛沽65,000大股, 平均每個"牌"沽萬幾股 --> question 2 --> 即係幾多錢貨?
3. 大摩同goldman好似無處不在, 個個沽位都有牌掛係度, 好似衝鋒隊咁大叫"上呀, 衝呀, 隊佢呀, 你地上先, 我奠後" --> question 3 --> 即沽 market爭幾多?
4. remember what you've missed and regretted
今日開SGM, 預計管理層會透露公司最新現況 - 增持上海北外灘項目, 再生能源等等. 有野睇.
來吧! 搖得樹多自有樹庇佑! 頭大有理! 愛錢無罪!
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2 comments:
i also noticed that morgan stanley, UBS, credit suisse, --- 有買有沽,好似無處不在, 睇到眼都花 , i don't know what are their intention: collection or distribution?
if distribution, it seems too early now as 190 still have many imaginations (from environmental "friendly" energy to infrastructure and prime commercial office and hotel, ...) to come true. maybe they are cashing out to level their losses in the subprime market?
what are your views?
hi jacky, i don't know if your assumption came out from what 林森池 had expressed earlier on RTHK's program. but cashing out on their profitable positions to cover up for hedge fund's subprime losses seems too respectable a reason for companies like 190 - afterall, 73% or more shares are held by management+penta+cerberus now. what left out in free market might be relatively small, considering the HKD18 billion market cap of HKC. cashing out on this might not help them too much.
my guess would go after the path of "warrants", of course, current headwinds in the property sector by mainland gov't also put pressure on it.
assumption: could that be the case that big-masters collected quite a few shares before ex-warrant day, targetting on getting the warrants. and then, after the ex-warrant day, it serves them doubly good if the share price drops more while they are selling out --- then, the warrant price would be even lower and they can collect more.
look, 8100+ million shares in issue, so there would be roughly 810 million warrants. 75% of this 810 million would be in mgmt+funds' hands, 25% of 810 equals roughly 200 million warrants. if the HKC share price stays at 2.20 level, warrants would cost only 20 cents or so.
200 million warrants would be worth only 40 million HKD. what you think?
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