北京八達通推往附近區域

「一卡通」發展潛力巨

北京發展(0154)上周以反覆整固為主，在兩度守穩3.95元支持後，於周四出現反彈，收市報 4.07元，全周計仍微跌0.04元，觀乎周內交投不多，反映現水平沽壓有限，故不妨作為調整市部署低吸的佳選。北京地鐵於黃金周後全線票價一律收2元， 有關的舉措已即時吸引大量人流利用地鐵，相信也有助解決奧運前夕交通擠塞的問題。另外，地鐵月票已決取消而改用「一卡通」，此舉將令大股東的北京發展成為 最大的受惠者，故此股的反彈潛力實不宜忽略。

「一卡通」用途類似香港的「八達通」，前者已發卡1,300萬張，本身北京的人口遠多過香港，加 上又有奧運的因素，未來交易額倍增已可預期。「一卡通」的收入主要來自按金利息同交易抽佣，既然未來用戶人數勢必急增，賺取的佣金亦將大增，至於內地連番 加息，則有助其來自利息的收入。據了解，「一卡通」的拓展步伐已告加快，並已滲透入的士、高速公路、戲院、停車場、快餐店等用戶，而周邊城市如天津、石家 莊等地，估計會逐步引入有關的服務，成為集團未來的盈利動力所在。北京發展年高位曾見過5.2元，現價離高位已回落27.76%，在股價沽壓已大減下，此 股的值博率已大增。可考慮在4元水平附近收集，中線重上5元的機會應非奢望。

(Source:文滙報 2007.10.22)

到目前為止, 都未知抽佣方面既安排係點, 同埋會抽幾多個 %%%, 不過, 此股之獨特之處係佢擁有林大師所講既千里馬必備條件之一: 市場專利/市場壟斷, 而且發展到一定規模之後, 就算有新市場參與者想爭, 都無有怕了, 因為你同我都唔會係銀包入面擺幾張唔同牌子既"八達通" --- it's like the credit card market, every bank is competing for the very limited space in its customer's wallet.

再者, 好似現在呢種RFID技術, 如果你放兩張RFID既咭係銀包裏面係過唔到閘機既, read 唔到.

有無攪錯?! 又配股?!

香港建設(190)昨天公告, 大股東黃剛以2.75配售共2.5億舊股, 經Macquarie做agent (以前都係用本地土炮如3V Group做配股agent, 會唔會曲線代表左公司既potential investors 已經"國際化"??), 如果反應好會加至3億股 --- 近日從各討論區看到眾多投資者大喊"有無攪錯, 賤庄又配股, 月月配, 想點呀黃剛你......." 諸如此類高呼痛心既言論.

但係其實呢次配股既行動一早已經預料到, 由cerberus+penta巨形入股行動果一刻已經公司宣布話因為要維持25%公眾持股量而要有所行動, 包括配股or發新股, 之前係2.8配果次亦係同樣目的, 唯一有少少唔明既係, 點解上次2.80配果時唔一次配夠, 要指明配完仲未夠, 話仲有一次呢??? 可能係大股東為小股東著想, 唔想發太多新股攤薄eps, 上次2.80係先舊後新, eps被攤薄, 今次2.75就係由大股東自己配舊股, 無新股攤薄效應.

所以, 係高呼"有無攪錯"前, 最好睇下自己有無攪錯先.

香港建設(190)停牌

今早(5/10)香港建設上升0.19, 接近7%升幅, 成交54.82million股, 下午開市前申請停牌, 好有可能就係昨日提到既25% public float 所引發既額外配股, 而配股價照今早同昨日走勢睇, 好有可能真係好似之前講咁樣, 一樣係2.80一股.

計及如果cerberus / penta / 大股東單入股/加碼deal 之後, 公眾人士持股量應該會降至23%, 所以照推今次停牌就係會由大股東配163球貨(around 2% of 8116.768 million shares), 咁就岩岩好25% public float, 咁既話黃剛就會持有40.1% 公司股權.

or

如果想保住3412.63m 股數不變就要由黃剛先配214.28million shares, 再同公司認講番相同數量既新股, 呢個亦係佢一貫既做法, 唔知今次會唔會都係呢.

let's wait and see.

香港建設(190)除息日

10月8日就係香港建設(190)既ex-dividend date, 聽日入貨既仲可以有權收HKD10 cents既中期股息(cash+scrip), 睇番呢兩日既交投量同股價走勢:

Date Hi/Low/Close Volume 主動沽盤/主動買盤 每口平均成交量
Sep 28 2.60/2.47/2.53 27.30m 12.28m/14.86m 37431
Oct 2 2.96/2.54/2.93 153.18m 59.90m/92.22m 61843
Oct 3 2.98/2.66/2.70 84.96m 49.48m/34.35m 34301
Oct 4 2.85/2.65/2.73 37.02m 18.07m/18.29m 33495

好明顯係Oct 2大升果日, 主動買家比沽家多成50%+, 而且從每口平均成交股數黎睇, 都係比呢幾日多差唔多一倍, 買家力量同size都好明顯比沽家強, 但係呢間公司既股價都受好多technical factor 影響, 特別係短期走勢, 呢兩日都係2.80左右上落, 原因可能就係8月頭既時候, 公司為左保持公眾持股量25%而係2.80水位配左450球股既貨, 跟住個市就開始回, 次按又爆, 攪到cerberus 同penta 入股果單野最後要減價添, 所以2.80水位應該要"拗"一輪消化下2.80批出去果批貨.

另外就係, 今次10月23日開既SGM通過左cerberus + penta入股後, 公眾持股量仍未夠25% minimum requirement, 可以預料黎緊短期內會仲有一次批股, 價錢方面好可能都係2.80咁上下, 要同第一次批果d差唔多水位, 公平少少先得, 所以我估計短期內(at least, before Oct 23's SGM)都唔會有大郁動住, 呢間公司, 要以中長線少少既角度去睇, 就會覺得佢唔係一般既二三線炒股仔, 唯一問題係現正處於資金需要高峰期, 對資金胃口可能會大一d, 今次引入cerberus, penta 同大股東再加碼私人認講, 都係為左係中國內地投地起樓, 況且公司亦都有考慮到資金回流量既問題, 會加緊沽出非核心物業項目, 就好似最近9月尾出售北京京廣中心權益收回HKD5.05億,並錄得利潤1.5億為例咁.

早前睇完果本投資書作者話, BASM既其中一個精髓, 就係要對管理層聽其言,觀其行 --- 睇下佢地會唔會講一套做一套, so far, 香港建設係呢方面尚算合格.

決勝日後記(一)

重倉股香港建設(190)已於早前公布2007年中期業績, 正如盈喜所講既一樣, 中期profit比去年同期上升143%, 由HKD2.48億升至HKD6.03億, EPS則由HKD0.105上升至HKD0.139, 受年中發新股所攤薄. 派息方面令人滿意, 每股派HKD8仙中期息(versus 2006年既 HKD4.5仙), 其中4仙會以股代息(換股價格待定), 另外4仙可以收cash或股, 再加上2仙特別息(celebrate 上市20週年), 總共派息10仙!!! 簡單以final dividend一樣派8仙為假設 (2006年final派6仙, 比中期多33%), 全年總共派息預料可達18仙, 折合息率為 6.67%p.a. (以今日收市價2.70計), 作為股東既我尚算滿意, 至於會收cash 4仙定要埋股, 就仲考慮緊, 傾向要股.....

至於早前公布話cerberus入股果單野要10月23日SGM通過埋先得, 問題應該不大, 到時就會通過埋10股送一份認股證果個proposal, 認講價係2.05, 同cerberus + penta 果個入貨價一樣, 簡單內在值都每份認股證值HKD0.65, 都幾和味, 最buy呢間公司既野就係佢地既管理層, 今次cerberus+penta入股單野, 遇著次按風暴, 比佢地迫減價, 由2.27減到2.05 --- 重點係, 大股東/ceo果個注資入貨價則保持不變, 仍舊係2.27 --- 好少見有大股東咁做, 顯示出大股東對佢呢間公司既信心有幾大, 無錯, 呢兩間private equity 同基金入股加強實力對公司係好, 但係自己仍然肯以原價2.27注資認講新股, 對小股東黎講, 我覺得係一種有承擔既表現, 至少到目前為止大股東唔係想"骨水"走人果種.

黎緊派中期息, 小股東可以係4仙cash,4仙以股代息, 呢個又係一個睇下大股東對自己公司有幾多信心既機會 --- 以往派息時, 如果有可以以股代息既option既話, 我印象中, 大股東都以股代息, 一蚊cash 都無自己收, 睇下今次會唔會又係咁, 係既話又係大股東投下信心一票既表現! 小股東要睇實啦...........

決勝日

近大半年所睇既財經書, 大大話話都有四五本, 可惜從中得著唔多, 可能係因為投資致富既秘訣跟本呢d作者就唔知, 又可能係因為投資要成功, 講到尾都係要戰勝自己既心魔, 唔係話學一兩招花拳繡腿(尤其係大部份初學者對技術分析既盲目)就學以去馬, 控制得到自己既EQ先至係最重要, 唔好係最唔應該買既時候入貨, 最唔應該出貨既時候出貨........... 記住2007年8月17日一役!!!!!

講就容易, 做就難過乜. 最近睇既呢本書就係呢方面比到少少幫助自己, 作者強調買股票既最終最終勝負係決定係管理層既quality, 話之你個市幾好, 如果間公司既管理層或大股東係"永義"一族, 咁做小股東既就喊都無謂, 唯有用腳投票, 狠沽之. 作者既 system叫 BASM (business plan, assumptions, strategy, management), 主要就係話management既vision, 個plan 既可行性, 高級管理層既執行力等等先至係一隻股票會唔會係林森池口中既"千里馬"...............

最近大半年一直重倉持有既一間公司, 雖然行業當中佢並唔算係一哥, 連九哥都可能唔係, 但係佢既CEO同大股東既市場舉動就令我對佢加左唔少分, 現價比成本高17%到, 而且聽日就公布中期業績啦, 係時候睇下佢地既良好品格可唔可以為股東帶來實質回報, 作為小小小股東既我, 就要睇聽日"決勝日"先再決定下一步......

有心人或已開始行動

以下是今天勤加緣 (2366) 既所有成交記錄:
跟昨天的情況有別, 今天勤加緣係大市下跌180點既情況下表現硬淨. 觀察盤路所見, 今天有幾樣野值得注意:
1. 全日近50萬股成交股數當中, 全部都係以ask價成交, 好少見, 起碼我跟左呢間公司9個月都好似未見過
2. 今日最後果3單成交, 每口成交都係 exactly 沽家所沽的數量, 有5萬4就掃5萬4, 有4萬就要4萬, 有9萬6就9萬6啦. 小戶如我等, 相信都係睇住自己個荷包做人, 睇銀彈做人, 夠錢買1萬股就1萬股, 3萬2千股就3萬2千股, 邊有話有幾多貨就掃幾多貨先得架.
3. 仲有就係, 你同我都唔會係最後果1分鐘做到野 - 偏偏今日15:59分就做左19萬股, 佔全日總成交40%咁滯. 係乜野類型既投資者做既? hm....... 我就無本事係最後一分鐘可以叫經紀做到, e-trading 都無把握可以"禁"到哂. 我係度諗, 一個大老細, 一個專人經紀 --- 咁米一通電話攪掂攞.
開車既日子愈黎愈近了.
(今次既情況愈睇愈跟904中國綠色食品既盤路相似, 可 refer to "邊個傻" posts)

十分鐘可以做乜?

勤加緣今日收市都係2.30, 翻查記錄, 由8月1日開始至今天26個trading days, 最高位2.33, 最低位2.21, 波幅超窄. 至於今日觀察所得, 全日成交漸轉旺盛, 有99.8萬股成交, 但係奇就奇在這其中有50.4萬股係向臨收市前果十分鐘成既, 要有突然間咁"多"(in relative terms, versus the 1 million total daily)成交而價位無上落, 當然係買賣雙方勢均力敵, 未分勝負, 其中買方代表為 "Man Hon Yeung & Co.", 賣方為 "UOB Kay Hian" - 論名氣, 當然係 UOB Kay Hian好d, 但係MHY那方也未能小看, 不停在2.30掛出買盤, 一被UOB Kay Hian 質左之後, 又係10-20秒後再掛出2.30買盤, 而UOB掛出既沽盤亦不少, 每每十萬八萬股, 不過都係係好短既時間內被掃走, 結果就係最後果十分鐘裡面, 來來回回以bid價, ask價 trade左十口八口都係2.30收市.

再查記錄, UOB Kay Hian曾經做過勤加緣配股既agent, 會唔會有機構投資者經UOB接左貨之後, 而家出貨呢? 又 - UOB Kay Hian 最新近對勤加緣既評為"持有", 目標價係3元 (as of June 2). 如此"口不對心"???? 定還是另有內情?

再睇買家行列, 當中另一"常客"係 "Luen Fat Securities" --- 又係另一間曾經為勤加緣做配股 agent!!!! 另一擁dun叫 Toyo Securities,日本仔也. 不過, 都係果句, 無跌穿止蝕位2.10, 又無乜野fundamentals 改變, 繼續持有, 等待收成也. 10.5倍2006 estimated P/E, 2006-2008 EPS估計複合增長26% (according to Credit Lyonnais), PEG 0.40, 抵買也.

QJY - profit per episode

In fact, the profitability of QJY media services depends largely on the number of hours of TV program it can produce for TV channels in China, mainly CCTV at the moment. According to data from the past, the following provides a general idea on the profit level per hour of TV production.

2004 fiscal year:
No. of hours of TV program: 58
Net profits: HKD50.36 million
Per production hour profit: HKD868,276

2005 fiscal year:
No. of hours of TV program: 126
Net profits: HKD66.25 million
Per production hour profit: HKD525,794

2006 first half:
No. of hours of TV program: 65
Net profits: HKD43.30 million
Per production hour profit: HKD666,154

According to their CEO in August 2006, the total production hours for 2006 fiscal year would be 180 hours. Let us assume that the per production hour profit drops to HKD500,000 in the second half, a simple estimate would rate 2006's full year profit at HKD100.80 million, an equivalent of HKD0.1986, projecting a dividend payout of 20%, total dividend for the year would be 0.03972, roughly HKD4 cents.

If this simple estimate of HKD0.1986 makes any sense to you, then, the projected 2006 P/E would be 2.30 / 0.1986 = 11.58 times. Projected dividend yield would be 1.74% for 2006.

Yes, there's a question of whether the total number of TV production hours has a 1-to-1 direct relationship with its bottomline figures. But, let's put it till later to go into the rationale behind and for now, some more projected production hours figures for 2007 and 2008 going forward.

Target production hours for FY2007 and FY2008 would be 250 and 375 respectively, according to Anita Leung lately, with a final target of taking up 10% market share of the 5000-hour overall market demand for prime-time TV episodes.

Then, applying the same logic for 2007 and 2008, then, the net profits, EPS and projected P/E would be:

FY2007
Net profits = 250 x 500,000 = HKD125 million
EPS = HKD0.2463
DPS = HKD4.926 cents
Forward P/E = 9.33 times

FY2008
Net profits = 375 x 500,000 = HKD187.5 million
EPS = HKD0.3694
DPS = HKD7.38 cents
Forward P/E = 6.22 times!

Sounds nice. What about the rationale for the basic assumptions behind these calculations?

QJY – dividend and issue of new shares

The following dividends were announced by QJY during its years since listed:
2004: HKD2.9 cents (final – listed in June 2004, no interim), 18.7% payout ratio
2005: HKD1.5 cents (interim), HKD1.7 cents (final), 19.7% payout ratio
2006: HKD1.8 cents (interim), 19.5% payout ratio

On several occasions, the CEO indicated expressly that the group’s dividend payout would be targeted at 20% each year and according to past dividend announcements, the shareholders got their dividend payout duly. It is fair to assume that this 20% payout policy will be maintained in the near future. Total cash paid out as dividend after being listed is roughly HKD25.6 million.

Issue of new shares could be a negative factor to its EPS these years. At IPO, 100 million shares were issued to the public at HKD1.28 each. In 2005, 70 million shares were issued at HKD1.83 each and in 2006, 47 million shares were issued at HKD2.28 each. Total capital inflow into the company after IPO from these 2 additional new capital exercises is roughly HKD235 million (70 x 1.83 + 47 x 2.28). It is a comparatively LARGE figure when you look at its IPO proceeds of HKD128 million in 2004.

After the issuance of new shares, the total number of outstanding shares is 507.6 million as of July 31, 2006. This explains the lower growth rate in EPS versus bottom line figures during these years – annual net profit grew 71.6% from FY2004 to H1/2006 while EPS only jumped 18.7% at the same time.

QJY - profit margins

Since QJY was listed in 2004, the gross profit margin remained at an extremely high level of 80% or above, respectively at 80.7%, 82.7% and 86.4% for FY04, FY05 and H1/06. Net margin also remained at a relatively high level of 58.9%, 62.3% and 68.1% respectively for FY04, FY05 and H1/06.

The reason behind these dreamingly high gross margins could be the unique business model that QJY adopted. QJY is basically a middleman between the TV program series investor, production houses, TV program trading companies and corporations and from its services provided to these parties, it derives either fees income or distribution rights for future benefits.

Most of QJY’s revenue comes from its TV program related services and it’s fair to assume that it’s also where most of its profits come from. QJY would search for potential investors (mainly advertising agencies) and match them with the production houses which would be the one to shoot the film/TV series. In the first half of 2006, QJY finished 60 hours of production and according to its CEO, Dr. Anita Leung in recent announcements, the total production for FY2006 would be 180 hours, implying that the second half of 2006 could provide a higher profit figure than H1.

QJY - turnover

Qin Jia Yuan Media Services (2366.hk) was listed on the mainboard in June 2004 and as of Aug 31, 2006, it has a market value of roughly HKD1,172 million, implying a historic P/E of 17.7 times (net income for FY ending Sep/2005 of HKD66.2 million).

Interim results for the 6 months ended Mar/2006 was HKD43.27 million versus HKD28.82 million during the same period last year, representing a 50.14% increase in net profits. Earnings per share recorded a 27.74% increase, from HKD7.21 cents to HKD9.21 cents, due to a dilution effect from new issue of shares. A preliminary simple estimate of a full year (FY06) net profit of HKD86.54 million, assuming a stable second half, QJY is currently trading at P/E of 13.5.

Taking into consideration of any seasonal factor, the following table compares H1/06 to H1/05’s results.

Turnover (in HKD thousand)

TV program related income 36169 (+33.9%) versus 27010
Marketing related income 18220 (+61.4%) versus 11289
PR service income 9095 (-35.2%) versus 14045
Total 63484 (+21.3%) 52344

TV program related income made up 57% (vs 51%), marketing related income 29% (vs 22%) and PR service accounted for 14% (vs 27%) of its total revenue respectively. Both TV program and marketing income recorded a satisfactory growth during the period; nevertheless, PR income dropped 35%. Overall turnover rose 21% versus a year earlier.

邊個傻?

中國緑色食品(904), 一間市值HKD15.6億的民營企業, 主要在中國內地種植蔬菜及其它農產品出口到日本市場, 2005年財政年度這方面銷售額達到人民幣2.2億, 佔總銷售額49%, 日本人一向注重食品質量, 從2003年來的已知數據顯示, 日本方面的營銷相當穩定, 維持在2億左右, 顯示公司產品質量穩定, 能維持日本客戶的信心, 但做生意最緊要講前景, 講增長, 股票係有前無後的遊戲, 公司近年開始打開本土內銷市場, 2005年內地銷售額達1.86億元, 年增長50%! 本業發展not bad, 再來看風勢, 2006年開始的 “十一.五”計劃, 鼓勵國內本土消費, 減少對出口過份依賴, 再加上扶助農業政策, 減税等措施, 順風. 最後看股票在誰人手中.

Value partners 近期減持貨量, 沽出約2百多萬股, 持股量跌至7.99%, 但同時間股價在05年12月內上升7.5%至2.15, 創出至上市以來收市新高, 著名基金減貨, 理論上應是壞消息, 何解股價仍上升甚至創出新高? 莫非主席那 “象徵式”的數萬股增持比金手指減持二百萬股更具意思? 應跌不跌, 此乃迷團一.

觀看今天盤路情況, 發現迷團二, 全日成交49.5萬股的中國緑色食品, 成交價位只在2.15-2.175兩個位之中, 買家掛單中人丁單薄, 但價位就是跌不下去, 沽家名單中卻竟然發現大摩的踪影, 於2.275喊沽, 30萬股, 大摩沒理由不知道要一口沽淸30萬股的難度, 而2.275更是未挑戰過的高位, 在那裏掛沽, 好像沒什意思, 而且在2.225-2.25之間也發現摩踪, 難道大摩在等運到? 等有人狂掃幾個價位, 一下子把他要出的貨全吃下去? 從來只有大戶吃人, 好像沒聽過大戶坐在那裏等出貨. 大摩出現的目的很可能就是要你知道他出現, 他在那裏, 讓你望而生畏, 不敢亂來, 然後他慢慢收貨….. 中國緑色食品一月內將公布中期業績, 玄機可能就在那裏, 迷團答案也可能埋在業績下.

可能大摩傻, 癡癡地等其他人來以2.275元吃下他的貨(30萬股或更多??) 可能我傻, 以為大摩是何等人, 其實他也只是在等沽而已, 可能大摩扮傻, 欺騙我等小股民的貨, 收貨為實, 可能以為大摩傻的人更傻, 把手上的貨沽出, 落到大摩的另一隻手中.

傻人見得多, 傻摩未見過, 我決定都係揸實手上d貨唔放過.

All you need is survival

the fairy tale has once again come close to reality. "what else is better than making a living doing daytrading with the stock market?", that's what i overheard the other day at lunch from 2 young ladies sharing my table. i don't have a clue on how they've found out this easiest way of getting rich in this world, but judging from their age and dress appearance, i'd bet it's their dad who's making the killing. and even more confusing is that one of them confessed to the other that she had barely any saving in her bank when she was asked why she didn't invest herself if money was that easy afterall. funny? not much until you know that the girl with zero saving was in her late 20s and the girl asking was obviously 14 or 15 only. where the heck did they get this impression of all these easy money from the stock market?

stock market in hk has finally retreated from its month-long rally of over 1500 points, yup, healthy correction as many would say. can a "healthy" correction look as bumpy as a 5-dollar trading range with hutchison during the day?! we are talking about a multi-billion-dollar-international-conglomerate here and this kind of volatility is probably something more than USUAL. result announcement is due next week for hutchy and you can expect the picture for 3G to get less frustrating (but still a drag on overall performance at the moment) especially when the management shares their plans to get some of their 3G operations listed in the uk or italy.

the calculation part shouldn't be difficult for the harvard-educated analysts at investment banks and i'm sure i can't do anything better than these guys in predicting the earning numbers. i'm clinging onto the belief that there's no easy money in the marketplace - trading volume in warrants is just making up new highs day after day. what's worrying me is the basic mentality of small investors - when would the little guys go into warrants so aggressively and why? a recent article/interview with a hk local small investor might tell us something, "this latest rally didn't benefit any of my holdings, as they are all 2nd or 3rd liners which didn't join the ride, i'm planning to chase-it-back from blue-chip's warrants hopefully." desperate but aggressive. this might be an individual case only but the general atmostphere surrounding the marketplace is so bullish and you gotta be wary of this --- much of the profit improvements of blue-chips this year came from revaluation of properties being counted as profits. it's all paper.

hutchy is a good company, doubtless. and mr. li's biz acumen is second to none among chinese globally, especially in trading assets. but it's not always the case that a good company = a good stock to own. with so many individual investors joining in the warrant market, hoping to make a big killing over the short run (as short as the next minute he/she's in), i won't take the risk of staying near the market top and sitting in a bumpy train isn't enjoyable afterall.

getting off bumpy trains when it's still going full speed has saved me from bloody losses time and again. check your seatbelt if you'd like to ride the upcoming roller-coaster trip and make sure you know where is the emergency exit.

信上帝的人有福了

著名投資人 Sir Templeton (Templeton Fund 創辦人) 曾經說過, “God only helps those who help others…..” 譚普頓作為一位基督徒, 說出這樣的道理自然不過, 但同時作為一位殿堂級的投資人, 他的每句說話也許都暗藏投資玄機。

近日正當港股氣勢如虹, 恒指屢創新高的同時, 某一大型上市公司 (市值要比恒指成份股裕元工業<0551.hk> 還要大) 遇到“強大阻力”, 其他大藍籌勢如破竹, 她卻受到數以千計投資者掛出沽盤要sell, 至今仍未能跟隨大市破位上衝, 掛出買盤的那邊廂, 人丁單薄, 不夠喊沽者之十分一….. 不錯, 人丁單薄, 但當中有我。

我選擇“鋤強扶弱”原因有三:

1. 買盤那邊人數弱, 但掛出的買單量絕不弱, 百多個買盤, 要買進25 mil股; 另一邊那一千個沽家也只是要沽出25 mil股, 喊買的是何人, 喊賣的又是何人?
2. 常說群眾是錯的, 股市內永遠是少數人贏多數人錢的地方, 要贏就要遠離群眾, 跟大伙兒對著幹。這倘大伙兒在喊沽。
3. 我信上帝, 我想伸出援手, 這麼多人想沽出, 懇求買家, 好, 我買。

Sir Templeton說, “God only helps those who help others. When everyone wants to sell, you help and buy from them; when everyone wants to buy, you help and sell to them.” 信者得救? 很快就要有答案了。