明燈初現

經過最近一輪"明燈"既衝鋒閻陣之後, 美元已開始止跌回升, 布殊政府終於可以落實執行"強美元"政策, 我諗佢之前如果真係有心推行既話都未必得, 因為隻船仲差一個人, 衣家上埋船, 正式開船...... 為作對比, 今日 May 5, foreign currency rates as follows:

EUR 1.5447
GBP 1.9743
JPY 105.36
AUD 0.9374
NZD 0.7816
CAD 1.0185

下一個中招既應該係金邊債.

明燈最新動向

最近雖然明燈對股市標題無乜意見, 又無乜發表佢對而家個市跌成咁有乜 complaint --- 07年11/12月個市開始跌個時佢猛咁問人係米你入左市攪到個市開始跌???

不過, 大家唔好咁定, 因為佢已經轉移戰線, 去左外幣市場"玩" --- 雖然唔係乜野margin trading, 只係最原始既外幣定期deposit, 但係足以 signal 美元可能已搵到一個比較可守既底, 特立此blog為証, 以今日10:52pm既外滙價為benchmark, 睇下過一個月或者一個 quarter 之後, 同佢做相反係米又有肉食先!!!!!!

EUR/USD 1.5712
USD/JPY 102.455
GBP/USD 1.9892
AUD/USD 0.9256
CAD/USD 0.9900
NZD/USD 0.7968

祝大家好運 --- 特別係long左紐元既朋友.

見頂前先兆回顧

諗番10月時份見頂時, 其實有好多signal係身邊, 以下記低黎提醒自己:

1. 財經雜誌 iMoney 推出
2. 洗頭仔與洗頭妹的一番說話
3. 每本大便雜誌中都有"OL 理財專欄"
4. 大學股神不停出現
5. 福娃大舉以5000大洋入市扮專家 ---> 最頂癮係, 個市開始回既時候, 佢仲週圍笑人係米你入左市個市米跌羅?!

歷史在不斷重複

最近呢排睇曹sir個專欄, 發覺佢多左講國家既長長長遠發展願景, 係佢既分析中好多時都提到中國現在發生緊既野只不過係美國係60-70, 日本70-80, 香港80-90時所經歷既野一樣, 好多時都imply 比讀者知, 呢潮國內資產價格回落真係要"及"實, 搵個長線位上車, 要睇既野係2020年附近既事情, 我諗, 其實我地呢代人, 最主要既機會就係呢個中國夢, 就等如我地阿爸阿媽以前所遇到既事一樣, 只不過係scale上面有少少唔同, 今次呢個大d, 複雜d.......... 世上每個大浪中都孕育出唔少英雄豪傑, 亦都有無數人變成枯骨, 要睇閣下身手同埋心智有幾隱定.

中國2月份CPI升8.7％（1月份升7.1％），創近十二年內高點，代表過去小幅加息力度不能抑制當前通脹壓力；上述升幅係1996年5月份上升8.9％以來最高。今年2月份食品價格升11％；燃料、動力價升9.7％，原油出廠價升37.5％，令汽油、柴油及煤油出廠價分別升8.7％、9.8％及11.4％；原煤出廠價升19.4％。大型鋼材升18.9％、中型鋼材升29.6％、小型鋼材升27.8％、線材升25.6％、中厚鋼材升18.5％。PPI亦連續第七個月上升，而且升幅擴大，代表今後更長一段日子通脹壓力仍居高不下；3月份數字應該較2月仲要高。上周五越南宣布放寬外管制，讓貨幣加快升值，以減輕境內通脹壓力。人民幣今年只升值3％（兌歐羅及日圓更貶值），面對2月份通脹率咁高，壓力漸加重（今年2月越南通脹率達15.7％，係十二年內最高）。內地會否同樣讓人民幣加快升值？
　　今天中國再唔係一個貧窮國，去年零售業數字係1萬億美元。據《福布斯》數字，2007年擁有10億美元身家中國富豪人數，由2006年只有十四個上升到2007年一百零六個。十五到二十年後中國股市總值不但超過日本，甚至有機會超過美國！中國一如八十年代香港經濟，正由出口、製造業帶動轉為內部消費帶動（香港轉型成功後，令恒生指數升穿1800點；去年10月最高見32000點）。十五到二十年後，中國股市總值係2007年10月十倍亦唔奇；反之，美股由現階段睇，未來何去何從？
　　今天中國，有如1950年代美國、1970年代日本或1980年代香港。中國去年人均收入已達2500美元一年，正向25000美元人均收入邁進。中國零售業以年率15％至20％速度上升，正步入高消費年代；估計2020年前中國私人消費以年率15％到20％速度上升。今天中國人均消費只及OECD國家5％，投資相等於OECD國家17％，出口相等於OECD國家31％。去年中國用去全球36％鋼鐵、50％水泥及9.5％石油產量。鋼鐵及水泥需求咁大，理由係中國仍處於基建項目投資高峰期，目的係增加基建設施去支持出口業務。石油消耗僅佔全球9％，比重咁少理由，係中國境內私人擁有汽車仍然唔多。
　　上一次中國零售高速上升期係1994年，其後回落到1998年；到2003年升幅只有5％到10％；2004年回升，近年再進入15％到20％較高增長期，但消費仍較集中汽車及房屋項目上。
　　中國人收入正由月入1500至2000元人民幣所謂低收入階層，進入4000至6000元人民幣階層，即由基本生活所需進入略為奢侈消費期，然後一如其他OECD國家，進入月入1萬元時期而引發大量消費。
　　上述情況五十年代至七十年代美國出現；六十年代至八十年代日本出現；七十年代至九十年代香港出現，未來亦中國出現。受惠項目包括平面電視、流動電話、數碼相機、寬頻服務、手提電腦、MP3、立體聲音響、DVD機等，其次係餐飲行業及旅遊業、酒店業、運動產品等。最大受惠行業自然係內房股。2005年一般家庭購買物業平均價507,000元、2006年549,000元、2007年657,000元（唔同地區差異好大），一如八十年代香港房地產，正步入大幅上升期，不過當然唔係直線上升。

最無聲無色既輸錢方法

人民幣今日跟隨美元弱勢, 大幅升值287點子, 兌美金成7.1133左右, 即係1人仔兌港紙1.0965 (@7.8 HKD/USD), 唔經唔覺差唔多要補10蚊先換到100蚊人仔, 近日身邊樣樣都加價, 尤其係食品方面, 因為全部都好依賴國家出口比我地, 呢d係大勢所趨, 唔係胡鬍仔派下糖就可以解決既問題.

現在如果話有一筆錢係到, 淨係放係銀行收息, 可以話係死路一條, 近乎無息不特止, 仲要每日不知不覺間比通脹蠶食, 物價上升已係事實, 隨左話因為人仔升緊之外, 最大問題係耕地下降, 人口上升, 以前就話國家想要外滙, 賣食物比我地, 一家便宜兩家著, 現在同胞富起來, 佢地都好想食好野, 有錢都唔係好想賣比你, 況且, 老子錢多的是.

就係咁樣, 你以為最安全既銀行存錢方法就變成左無聲無色既輸錢不二法門. 悲.

追求

人, 其實係股票市場裏面好多時所追求既, 唔係我地自以為是既"利潤", 更多時候, without you knowing / realizing it, 我地係追求緊一種証明自己眼光係對既 -- 而且與別不同地對 -- 感覺, 而股票市場裏面, 正正係提供左一個平台, 無盡既對手.

個個人都知道一步步致富既道理, 長期月供/持有優質公司大藍籌國企係致勝之道, 但係偏偏我地就係想証明自己唔洗行呢條"平凡"路都可以致富, 日日出出入入二三線, warrants, futures.

你既然係追求緊呢種感覺而唔係利潤既話, 比番少少費用都好應該者下話?

港建的最終結局

好多網友都曾經討論過, 究竟190係米所謂既"莊家股" --- 回頭看, 小弟之blog亦都曾經有朋友仔留過言, 點出港建既可疑之處(e.g. alvin 兄), 曾經自己分析過, 黃剛果一輪集資批股再引資既 exercise, 當時自己既結論係, 黃主席係一個有承擔既人, cerberus/penta 要求減價入股@2.05, 自己就照原價入@2.273, 以往派息既時候, 主席曾高調講過自己會全部以股代息, 以示對公司既信心, 凡此種種, 都令小弟增加左對佢地管理層既信心, 再黎送warrant比股東, 可以有同penta/cerberus同樣以2.05既機會入貨(although it's 2 years from now, who knows?).

現在回看, 又多d教訓, 睇番當日既集資部署 - 首先宣布引入cerberus/penta 以2.273入股, 之後股價受好消息帶動, 炒上3個幾, 跟住8月中大奇跡日回到1.5, 後來宣布原來cerberus/penta 以市況差為由要求減價至2.05, 大股東為左証明佢對公司既信心, 以原價2.273入股, 增加市場對190既信心. 之後, 由於要維持25% public float, 大股東被迫要配股, 當時 cerberus/penta proposal 未經股東會批, 黃主席先後以2.80左右既價錢配售比街外人, 以回復一旦cerberus proposal 通過左, 就唔夠 public float 既問題.

結果, 黃主席成功以2.80左右先配售, 再以2.273 既信心價入番股, 佢既信心可能就係因為有 HKD0.527 做墊底?! cerberus/penta入股之後, 股價返魂乏術, 展轉間, 又回到2.05, 再破埋2.00直試1.50水平, 在這段日子中, 有幾點可以提出提醒自己以後要注意:

#1 - c/p入股後, 再無任何新 project 推出 (大陸宏調? market timing not good? or 目的已達?)

#2 - 早前公開表明同母公司已達成增持上海金港項目, 只待測量師替該地核價 (已經幾個月, 全無聲氣, 是否現在地皮受宏調影響, 估價不高, 不打算注入? 或者母公司無理由再收190股票作代價? 如是後者, 那今天190的表現便............

#3 - 係股價重係2.00以上爭扎時, 有管理層行使 option, 在市場上套現 (although it's only a minor portion of that director's options)

#4 - 王軍離去既消息對小戶來說係突然, 但係股價早前既表現原來係答案已寫在牆上, 仲有 - 點解咁岩就係2月6日公布, 年三十晚下午無市先至公布? 唔通老人家真係睇農曆做人?

#5 - 公司係1.60多次回購以示支持, 到現在都無高層出來講講公司發展大計, 同2007手7月公司宣佈c/p 入股時, 連王軍都出埋黎有頗大出入

#6 - 王軍係當日記者會上講既野, 現在點? (refer to previous post)

最後港建會發展成點? 我都唔知, 可能現在眼前既一切又係一個局, 震哂散戶出黎又上過都唔定, 但係呢個已經唔重要, 野已經學左, 錢亦都比埋, 我知既係, 我要向前看, 經一事長一智, 對以後揀股有好大幫助.

(本網頁屬個人網誌，並不會給予任何投資建議。本網頁的一切言論並不構成要約、招攬、邀請、誘使、建議或推薦。本人亦無法保證網站內容的真確性及原整性。請運用個人獨立思考能力自行求証分析，一切賺蝕得失，概與本人無涉)

財技

教訓1: 財技玩得太多既公司, 好有可能有"景滾", 集資發新股, 派紅股, 主席批股再增持, 自問唔夠功力分析當中既千絲萬縷

教訓2: 唔洗止蝕呢家野, 唔係個個都用得, 如果你有warren buffett 或者林森池既功力除外, 如果唔係, 你以為係市場錯價, 其實係你自己估錯價

教訓3: 無100%執行自己原先定下既 risk reduction move, 只係做左1/3都唔夠, 否則可以減低損失

教訓4: 應該多d去剪頭髮, 唔好慳個一百幾十, 洗頭時多d同人傾計

諗到再寫.

假如 - 假如

由2007年1月2日開始以HKD1.40投資HKD1萬買入香港建設(190), 可得7142.86股.

2007年6月收取06年末期息每股HKD6仙, 並選擇以股代息(換股價HKD1.59), 可得269.54股為中期息, 現持7412.40股.

2007年10/11月收取07年中期息每股HKD8仙, 特別息HKD2仙 cash, 8仙又全選以股代息(換股價HKD2.703), 可得219.38股, 現持7631.78股; 另手持現金特別息HKD148.25 (7412.4*0.02).

2007年11月30日收報2.45, 共值=> HKD7631.78*2.45+148.25 = HKD18846.1 => 回報88.46%.

恒指同期回報 from 19964 to 28643 => 43.47%, H-share index from 10633 to 17178 => 61.55%

耐性

曾經因無耐性而後悔非常: 2628, 904, 1055, 406 & ..................

因為有d耐性而開開心心: 1198, 1063, 2628, 154 & hopefully 190

耐性 --- 究竟要幾多先夠? 有d似鹽之於煮餸咁, 無佢毫無味道, 太多又咸到嘔; 無耐性既投資, 睇岩都無用, 太多耐性既投資又可能會係坐得太定, 要自己記住1198同1063既例子! 曹sir公開講過, 唔好下下學林森池咁, 話好股唔使止蝕, 做之前問下自己 --- 有無林sir 既揀股功力同超高eq, 對一般凡夫俗子如我, 還是擁抱曹sir名句:止蝕唔止賺.

今日香港建設又係需要耐性既一日, 全日升一個仙, 收2.72, 高低位2.77/2.67, 成交31.25mil 股:

全日主動買盤:17.08m
全日主動沽盤:13.82m
VWAP: 2.7177

不過, 以300,000股或以上為一口既成交裏面:

主動買盤: 6.26m
主動沽盤:2.84m
VWAP: 2.7232

大手成交裏面, 主動買盤比主動沽盤多一倍有多, 成交價仲比全日VWAP高. 睇黎我需要多一d耐性.

久別重逢

雖然成日都有keep住睇人地既blog, 但係都已經足足一年無係自己個地盤噴口水, 最近受老婆大人對寫blog既熱情感染, 又心思思想寫番d野, 好似somehow會支持到老婆甘 :) 講到寫野, 我一定唔夠老婆大人甘有熱情同文筆好架啦, 但係自己耐唔耐都有d無關痛癢既諗頭(可能同頭大有關)想講出黎, 希望唔好有日有人留言問我做乜諗野啦..........

ouch! that's 2005.

Lazy bones all around. In medical terms, it’s called the “post-festive-holiday-syndrome” which mostly happens on people who need to come back to work between boxing day and new year’s eve, like me sitting here. Wish I could re-live 2005 again so that I could be a little bit smarter here and there with my stock-picking skills. Absolutely no advancement financially in 2005 and hopefully the portfolio would only end up flat compared with a year ago. Experience-wise, it’s a fruitful year. Time to review rights and wrongs in 2005!!! Hm…..Old-fashioned, but it helps.

Quitted too late on a long-time winner that had a substantial rally in 2003 and 2004. I knew the exit door was too small for everyone for these small caps but maybe, I had been sitting for too long on the wonderful ride up and I got all numbed at the end when you need to run for life. 25% down from the top and I got out. These are small caps, they bring you returns in folds but you’ve got to watch for the exit always. Major reason to have a flat return in 2005.

Fooled by small moves and blinded from the bigger ones. Irritated by the testing of major support for one and got out at the bottom of the range. It hurts even more when you find this one standing 22% above your exit point. Big trend was the Renmenbi revaluation and beneficial government policy directions for the company – kicked out by silly rumors on the street. Lesson – setting stop loss level is more of an art than science and don’t cry over spilled milk.

Made good use of other people’s advice. This is where e-banking can’t compare to doing trades physically at the bank. It was the bank manager I need to thank. The teller didn’t know how to do a trade in gold and her supervisor was called in to help. The trade was done finally and I got some gold in the portfolio. He apologized for the inconvenience as the teller had no experience in dealing with gold and had to keep me waiting. I asked him if there were many people doing trades in gold by then (this is the only bank in the city which still offers a trading account in gold!). Not many, I was told, in fact I doubt if I was the only gold account showing up at his branch for the past few years. Then, I was suggested, instead of getting no interest on gold investments, I might want to get into aussie dollars, euro or even these XYZ-linked-double-protection-credit-default-note with an enhanced interest rate. There you go, gold has never looked back since then. A big thank you to the bank supervisor - I added some more on the next day.

Reached out a few times on small caps and successfully cut loss at pre-determined level. This is the happiest thing ever and I’m really really glad that I was able to do that, even more than getting a handsome profit elsewhere. I AM ALIVE.

happy new year!

All you need is survival

the fairy tale has once again come close to reality. "what else is better than making a living doing daytrading with the stock market?", that's what i overheard the other day at lunch from 2 young ladies sharing my table. i don't have a clue on how they've found out this easiest way of getting rich in this world, but judging from their age and dress appearance, i'd bet it's their dad who's making the killing. and even more confusing is that one of them confessed to the other that she had barely any saving in her bank when she was asked why she didn't invest herself if money was that easy afterall. funny? not much until you know that the girl with zero saving was in her late 20s and the girl asking was obviously 14 or 15 only. where the heck did they get this impression of all these easy money from the stock market?

stock market in hk has finally retreated from its month-long rally of over 1500 points, yup, healthy correction as many would say. can a "healthy" correction look as bumpy as a 5-dollar trading range with hutchison during the day?! we are talking about a multi-billion-dollar-international-conglomerate here and this kind of volatility is probably something more than USUAL. result announcement is due next week for hutchy and you can expect the picture for 3G to get less frustrating (but still a drag on overall performance at the moment) especially when the management shares their plans to get some of their 3G operations listed in the uk or italy.

the calculation part shouldn't be difficult for the harvard-educated analysts at investment banks and i'm sure i can't do anything better than these guys in predicting the earning numbers. i'm clinging onto the belief that there's no easy money in the marketplace - trading volume in warrants is just making up new highs day after day. what's worrying me is the basic mentality of small investors - when would the little guys go into warrants so aggressively and why? a recent article/interview with a hk local small investor might tell us something, "this latest rally didn't benefit any of my holdings, as they are all 2nd or 3rd liners which didn't join the ride, i'm planning to chase-it-back from blue-chip's warrants hopefully." desperate but aggressive. this might be an individual case only but the general atmostphere surrounding the marketplace is so bullish and you gotta be wary of this --- much of the profit improvements of blue-chips this year came from revaluation of properties being counted as profits. it's all paper.

hutchy is a good company, doubtless. and mr. li's biz acumen is second to none among chinese globally, especially in trading assets. but it's not always the case that a good company = a good stock to own. with so many individual investors joining in the warrant market, hoping to make a big killing over the short run (as short as the next minute he/she's in), i won't take the risk of staying near the market top and sitting in a bumpy train isn't enjoyable afterall.

getting off bumpy trains when it's still going full speed has saved me from bloody losses time and again. check your seatbelt if you'd like to ride the upcoming roller-coaster trip and make sure you know where is the emergency exit.

how real is it?

"REAL ESTATE GOLD RUSH"

that's the cover story of FORTUNE's may 30th issue.

the US real estate market - just picked this up from the mailbox and didn't even have time to flip through the pages but these four little words on the magazine's cover are catching all my attention already. what's so eye-catching? we've got six very nice pictures on its cover, showing smiling faces of young men and women, full of confidence with one of them seemingly yelling "i'm king of the world!" with his arms reaching high in the air!

can't keep thinking about this. the investment guru said, "when an investment turns up as THE best buy in the media, it's time to sell and go away." effectiveness of this theory carries a very high positive correlation with the media's own (or magazine/press) industry standing. on this aspect, fortune commands a respected position in the financial/business world, no objection. when it talks about stories on people getting rich from real-estate (my guess up till this point as i've not gone through the pages yet but you can probably tell from their smiley faces), i'll bet it's not far from a major market top.

the world just can't be that perfect.

Toys for the big boys

Very soon, pocket PCs will be capable of doing your laundry. Colleagues and friends around are all reaching for the latest mobile phone, or not actually a mobile phone but a technical device capable of sending emails, taking pictures, reaching friends online in the other side of the globe, downloading songs, handling spreadsheets, doing a small presentation and well, making phone calls. Lovely idea, in fact and it’s so nice to imagine having one of such in my jacket’s pocket, putting every little bit of information inside and you are just walking around with a PC in your pocket. Have been thinking of getting one for long but the next second, I’m thinking how many times I’ll be using it during a typical workday, not to mention weekends. With this span of computer screens in front of me right now and a fat one at home, it will be better to keep a little distance from anything coded by 1s and 0s, for a couple of hours.

These fancy machines are selling for 5000 dollars and you’ll have to line up for the batch arriving next month (of course, you pay up-front). Hm….. tricky, maybe, it’s another sign of getting outdated. My notebook only costs me 6700 dollars and it feels like a real-computer to me and it has a bigger screen!!!!! Yes, it can’t do my laundry, you may say and I don’t expect it anytime soon. The salesman didn’t tell me it’s waterproof.

財經演員真情對話

朋友送來兩張基金投資講座入場券, 說請來了香港某證券界人士主講, 剖析2005年各投資市場前景及相應策略. 投資乃世上最易學難精既一門學問, 無人可以教你咁做咁做就可以將一蚊變一百, 一百變一萬. 大部分成功既投資家, 後生個陣通常都經歷過"輸到眼光, 被迫斬倉"既日子, 然後痛定思痛, 吸收經驗, 痛改前非, 從頭黎過最後先可以從股海中上岸, 找到真正既財務自由, 做自己想做既野 (通常佢地都係選擇做番投資既野, 因為佢地真係鐘意呢樣野先至咁成功). 相反, 兩個鐘頭既投資講座就可以指點迷津幫你搵到今年既投資熱點? 打死都唔信, 仲免費添??? 得得呀? 免費午餐係真係有既, 不過絶大部分時間都唔輪到你同我食咁解 jer.

財經演員有問必答? 黃大仙咩?